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Hot October inflation report sends stocks lower and pushes 10-year Treasury yield back to 5%

Traders now see a December Fed rate hike as nearly certain, with a small chance of a half-point increase.

Stocks fell Tuesday after October consumer price data came in hotter than expected. The S&P 500 traded down 0.7%, the Dow fell 345 points, or 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8%. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists had expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, compared with an expected 0.2%. The government did not release an annual figure because of the 2025 government shutdown. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London that he expects a December rate hike and opened the door to a half-point increase if inflation runs higher than expected. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects two more rate hikes will be needed.

Key points

  • October CPI rose 0.4% monthly, above the expected 0.3%
  • 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 14 basis points to 5.004%
  • Traders see a December Fed rate hike as nearly certain

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